A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method
AbstractDengue fever is an acute disease that clinically can cause death because there is no prediction system to estimate dengue fever cases so it resulted in the growing of dengue fever cases every year. Original data gathering in Jember area that uses technique of partial data gathering has caused data missing. To make this secondary data can be processed in prediction stage there is need to conduct missing imputation by using Monte Carlo method with four different randomization method, followed by data normality test with chi-square, then continued to regression stage. We use MSE (Mean Square Error) to measure prediction error. The smallest MSE result of regression is the best regression model for prediction.
Buletin Jendela Epidemiologi. (2010). Demam Berdarah Dengue (Volume 2). Indonesia: Kementerian Kesehatan.
Wahyu, Sri Yulianto, Identifikasi Missing Value dan Outlier pada Proses Cleansing Data, 2014, Salatiga.
Han, Jiawei, Micheline Kamber, Jian Pei, Data Mining : Concept and Techniques, 2011 USA : Morgan Kaufmann.
Nasoetion, Forecasting of Native Chicken Population in Central Java by Using Trend Least Square Model, 2009 National Seminar Awakening Ranch, Semarang, 20, 2009.
Achmad Basuki, Miftahul Huda, Tri Budi. Model and Simulation, 2014, IPTAQ Mulia Media, Jakarta.
Addie Andromeda Evans, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, 2008, San Fransisco State University.
Jiaqi Ge, Yuni Xia and Jian Wang, A NaÂ¨Ä±ve Bayesian Classifier in Categorical Uncertain Data Streams, Indiana University, Purdue University Indianapolis and Nanjing University.
Gintautas Dzemyda, Leonidas Sakalauskas, Large-Scale Data Analysis Using Heuristic Methods, INFORMATICA, 2011, Vol. 22, No. 1, 1â€“10.
H. Abdul Rahiml , F. Ibrahim, A Novel Prediction System In Dengue Fever Using Narmax Model, International Conference on Control, Automation and Systems 2007 Oct. 17-20, 2007 in COEX, Seoul, Korea.
Napa Rachata, Phasit Charoenkwan, Thongchai Yooyativong, Kosin Chamnongthal, Chidchanok Lursinsap, and Kohji Higuchi, Automatic Prediction System of Dengue Haemorrhagic-Fever Outbreak Risk by Using Entropy and Artificial Neural Network, International Symposium on Communications and Information Technologies (ISCIT 2008).
Dia Bitari Mei Yuana, I Putu Dody Lesmana, Slamet Yulianto, Model Potential Spread of Disease Fever Dengue in Jember Method Using Fuzzy, Prosiding Conference on Smart-Green Technology in Electrical and Information Systems. Bali, 14-15 November 2013.
Imam Taufik, and Mada Sanjaya WS,Monte Carlo Simulation in Predicting Epidemics of Dengue dengeu in the district of Sukabumi Citamiang, Physics Conference Proceedings 1 2012, ISSN 2301-5284.
A. E. Maxwell. Analysing Qualitative Data. 4th Edition. Chapman and Hall Ltd., 1971. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 75â€“10907.
Copyright (c) 2016 EMITTER International Journal of Engineering Technology
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
The copyright to this article is transferred to Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya(PENS) if and when the article is accepted for publication. The undersigned hereby transfers any and all rights in and to the paper including without limitation all copyrights to PENS. The undersigned hereby represents and warrants that the paper is original and that he/she is the author of the paper, except for material that is clearly identified as to its original source, with permission notices from the copyright owners where required. The undersigned represents that he/she has the power and authority to make and execute this assignment. The copyright transfer form can be downloaded here .
The corresponding author signs for and accepts responsibility for releasing this material on behalf of any and all co-authors. This agreement is to be signed by at least one of the authors who have obtained the assent of the co-author(s) where applicable. After submission of this agreement signed by the corresponding author, changes of authorship or in the order of the authors listed will not be accepted.
Retained Rights/Terms and Conditions
- Authors retain all proprietary rights in any process, procedure, or article of manufacture described in the Work.
- Authors may reproduce or authorize others to reproduce the work or derivative works for the author’s personal use or company use, provided that the source and the copyright notice of Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya (PENS) publisher are indicated.
- Authors are allowed to use and reuse their articles under the same CC-BY-NC-SA license as third parties.
- Third-parties are allowed to share and adapt the publication work for all non-commercial purposes and if they remix, transform, or build upon the material, they must distribute under the same license as the original.
To avoid plagiarism activities, the manuscript will be checked twice by the Editorial Board of the EMITTER International Journal of Engineering Technology (EMITTER Journal) using iThenticate Plagiarism Checker and the CrossCheck plagiarism screening service. The similarity score of a manuscript has should be less than 25%. The manuscript that plagiarizes another author’s work or author's own will be rejected by EMITTER Journal.
Authors are expected to comply with EMITTER Journal's plagiarism rules by downloading and signing the plagiarism declaration form here and resubmitting the form, along with the copyright transfer form via online submission.